Monday, December 31, 2018

You Can Read Me Now In US Naval Institute Blog.

Russian Navy, Mission Found?

You may read my new piece on some doctrine-technology issues in today's USNI Blog post. Link is below. 

Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post

Here is the post which I will try to keep sticky for people to ask questions and share their thoughts which are not on topic. This, I think is known as Open Thread. Fire away.

You May Read Me on Unz Review Too.

1. I got my first piece published on Unz Review today, so you may check it out there

2. You can read my piece on some peculiarities of Russo-Chinese "alliance" at Unz Review. Here:

The Russo-Chinese "Alliance" Explained 

3. Here is the latest One. 

Russia's Stand-Off Capability: The 800 Pound Gorilla in Syria

4. On INF Treaty.   

 The Sand Castle INF Treaty

5. New piece on geopolitics and navalism.

The Russo-Chinese "Alliance" Revisited  

6. My new piece on Putin's speech came out today at Unz Review. 

The Implications of Russia's New Weapon Systems

Friday, March 23, 2018

It Is Friday.

The sound which fades...ethereal. 


On Bolton And Others...

As you may have heard already, Donald Trump got himself new National Security Adviser in form of John Bolton. John Bolton is an odious figure and, among many fine qualities defining this guy is his draft-dodging, cowardice and a complete detachment from any military-political realities of the world, he is a lawyer by trade and sometimes goes under the title of diplomat, which he is not. In fact, diplomacy as such--a craft of building and maintaining international relations to the benefit of own nation--does not exist anymore in the US. Bolton is not an exception, if someone thinks that Trump went completely mad by appointing this psychopath--they are wrong. Bolton, in fact, is a concentrated embodiment of modern US "elites" or "establishment". The problem is not just Bolton, however insanely aggressive (the obverse side of cowardice and a collection of inferiority complexes) he is at the expense of others--the problem is institutional and cultural--it is increasingly obvious degeneracy of US ruling class.

America can not and does not produce anymore real statesmen. And most American establishment are people of similar nature as Bolton. I did a short review of the situation with US "elites" about 2.5 years ago. So, now this guy has Trump's ear. What possible "advice" will this "adviser" give Trump. Let's list some of them:

1. War on Iran;
2. War on Syria;
3. War on North Korea;
4. Possibly war on Russia (China?).

I am not being  facetious, I just listed points of Bolton's agenda which he was promoting for years and never made a secret of it. Once Mattis and Kelly, last two people in Trump Administration who have at least some grasp of real warfare, are removed from Administration, the preparation with the war on Iran will start. 

What kind of war, one may ask? Well, if it is going to be land invasion of Iran, that will be the end of the United States as a country. Not because Iran can attack the US, but because even if the US Armed Forces overcome, with relatively few casualties, Iranian Army, which is better than Arab militaries but still is not a first class fighting force, what would follow--that is going to be a wowser. Unlike anything US encountered before in the Middle East, occupying such country as Iran, where overwhelming majority of Iranian 80+ million strong population will be thirsting for American blood and will have many means to draw it, is simply beyond American resources. To start with, Iran's area is five times larger than, say, Vietnam's. Unlike Iraq, Iran's terrain is extremely complex and mountainous. In general, the number of casualties US military will face will be on the order of magnitude larger than in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. In fact, Vietnam War may begin to look like a rather tame military affair. In the end, can US control Iran without capturing Tehran (a city of 12 million people) or Mashad (3 million), Isfahan (1.9 million) among many, or without controlling Mazenderan and its coast? I am all eyes and ears for anyone to give me a realistic number of US troops required to occupy this country. Do I hear the word Draft (which Bolton and most US elite so successfully dodged) in the air? So, in this case the issue of American internal policies not only may but will become so huge and so toxic that, well... make your own conclusions.

But the main issue here is not even Iran, but, as you might have guessed it already--Russia. And Russia can do a lot and I mean a lot, to address the Iran War, if one breaks out, and to make sure that Iran stands as a nation. In fact, something tells me that such contingencies are being discussed already between Russia and Iran. Iran is no friend of Russia but, judging by the latest events in Russia, Russia and overwhelming majority of Russians had it with the US and the West and Russia is a very wrong country to fvck with on any level once she decides that she had enough and it seems like that she, indeed, had it. But I am sure, John Bolton being a "specialist" in military affairs knows all that, right? I kid, I kid. I, in the last 4 years observed not a single American civilian, and even, which is terrifying, many military people, of prominence, who understand modern warfare realities of this moment of time. 

I am not going to review what Russia may do, and she will, since she also has some issues in Caucasus which need serious diplomatic addressing and she will not allow destabilization of Caucasus. Nor will she allow appearance of any hostile power on the shores of Caspian Sea. Bolton, being totally ignorant (it is not an assumption--I know this for a fact) of actual US resources, or lack thereof, issue will have, or already has, in mind a sort of replay of the sharper and more aggressive Cold War 1.0. There could be very few less qualified than Bolton people in Washington who could be entrusted with such an amateur plan, but once the first bombs start falling on Iran, or, for that matter on North Korea, the United States will start its countdown to own implosion. It seems that in general the United States has a constant issue with her National Security Advisers, be it late Zbig, whose loyalty was to Poland and who in his pathological Russophobia unleashed forces of Islamic jihad, or be it John Bolton, who is utterly unqualified in any matters concerning actual national security--the pattern is very clear. So, in order to not leave all of you in a somewhat depressed mood, I suggest we all listen to Bolton himself, Michael, of course. And what did you think? BTW, what a beautiful piece of music and lyrics. 


Thursday, March 22, 2018

Donald Just Being Donald.

In related news: the circus has left the town, or is on its way out anyway, it seems.

'No collusion': House Intel Committee votes to end Russia probe

Speaking shortly before the completion of the probe, committee member Michael Conaway said it would take the writer of a spy thriller to turn the “inadvertent contacts” between Trump associates and Russian officials into evidence of collusion.
I wonder (wink, wink) why such a suddenly "principled" Russia "analyst" (self-proclaimed, I may add) as Ralph Peters "suddenly" decided to leave Fox? Hm, could these two events be somehow connected (wink, wink)?  

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

WaPo: Trump’s national security advisers warned him not to congratulate Putin. He did it anyway.

This is the title of yet another hyperventilating piece in WaPo, where POTUS' "national security advisers" told him not to congratulate Putin and bring up an obvious false flag Skripal affair in conversation. Well, DJT showed that he is smarter than that.

President Trump did not follow specific warnings from his national security advisers Tuesday when he congratulated Russian President Vladi­mir Putin on his reelection — including a section in his briefing materials in all-capital letters stating “DO NOT CONGRATULATE,” according to officials familiar with the call.

I think it is as good time as any to start speaking in broadsides and basically give a final diagnosis to US "national security advisory" cabal an appropriate definition--it is incompetent and it is in a whole lot of an intolerable butt-hurt. A lot comes into this butt-hurt, such as General McMaster being nothing more than a peep-squeak when compared with people who are his counterparts in Russia. He is simply not in the same league as Gerasimov militarily or Patrushev intelligence wise. Nor "tough-talking" Mattis can impress anyone in Russia, not to mention that nobody in US military knows what it means to defend own country and what goes into this. The United States is in no danger of being invaded by treacherous barbaric Canadian troops or be bombed into the stone age by the mighty Mexico.  Plus, obvious barely hidden complex of inferiority. Hence childish behavior. 

Just an example, McMaster knows that none of his family, close and remote, are in any danger of being attacked by Russia, unless, of course, this Ph.D advises to attack Russia first and succeeds in his plans. It is really a simple reality, Russians do not want to kill Americans, but US establishment wants to kill Russians and the more the better. Should it come to it, they will have no problems with bombing the shit out of Moscow, St. Petersburg or Vladivostok. One of those psychopaths, Ralph Peters "resigned" from Fox today because poor fellow can not handle an actual (for once coming from Fox) attempt on telling some semblance of truth. Should, say, McMaster or whoever is in his "advisory" board ever had some of their relatives killed or maimed, or had their property blown to smithereens, or go hungry or cold for months as a direct result of a war and then suffer from crippling chronic illnesses--they may have changed their childish butt-hurt posture. But nobody among them has those experiences, all of them without exception are good ol' boys and girls, some of whom saw some brutality of war inflicted on others, but that is about it. Mattis may have flattened Fallujah but does he understand what it means to have one's own city flattened? They come from prosperity and century and a half long (in reality more) peaceful United States where the only reminder of a violence are criminal chronicles on TV and newspaper from communities from which no future officers or national security advisers emerge. Hence they always have non-stop urges to compensate for the lack of history, skills, often culture and this inferiority is not a good guide in making adult decisions. Paradoxically, DJT's undeniable narcissism and spontaneous nature may have been a good counter-balance to the advise of his so called "somebody's national security" advisory team and made him do a sensible and, in general, right thing to do. 

Today the US so called "national security" apparatus is the same as US "diplomacy"--a simulacra, a non existent phenomenon. A "national INsecurity" complex and a Deep State are more appropriate descriptions.  Moreover, it is a cabal of incompetents who are good only for palace intrigues and demonstrating their hurt feelings and who absolutely have no grasp of the world outside--it is a catastrophe. The "academe" and "expertdom" which supports this "national security" is mostly a sewer which is absolutely not qualified to pass any judgement or give advise on serious geopolitical,  military, economic, technological issues among many. The worst--they do not know history. They do not know American history, they sure as hell have no clue about 20th century military history and a real history of Russia is beyond their grasp.  So what's left for them? Sabotage. They sabotage a crucial line of communications between Presidents of Russia and USA which has a strategic global significance in preventing the world from sliding down towards a WW III, which will see hundreds of millions of people dead and more maimed and their lives destroyed. They sabotage the POTUS, who for all his personal failures, sincerely spoke many words of truth and wisdom during his campaign. In the end, they sabotage America herself--all those, however, slight attempts at finding some model which may work. This is the face of today's American "National Security" and those who serve it. They sure as hell do not serve America.

Russia’s historic recovery under President Putin and its gradual international influence shattered US pretense to rule over unipolar world. Russia’s recovery and control of its economic resources lessened US dominance, especially of its oil and gas fields.
As Russia consolidated its sovereignty and advanced economically, socially, politically and militarily, the West increased its hostility in an effort to roll-back Russia to the Dark Ages of the 1990’s.
The US launched numerous coups and military intervention and fraudulent elections to surround and isolate Russia . The Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Russian allies in Central Asia were targeted. NATO military bases proliferated.
Russia’s economy was targeted : sanctions were directed at its imports and exports. President Putin was subject to a virulent Western media propaganda campaign. US NGO’s funded opposition parties and politicians.
The US-EU rollback campaign failed.
The encirclement campaign failed.
The Ukraine fragmented – Russia allies took control of the East; Crimean voted for unification with Russia. Syria joined with Russia to defeat armed US vassals. Russia turned to China’s multi-lateral trade, transport and financial networks.
As the entire US unipolar fantasy dissolved it provoked deep resentment, animosity and a systematic counter-attack. The US’s costly and failed war on terror became a dress rehearsal for the economic and ideological war against the Kremlin ..Russia’s historical recovery and defeat of Western rollback intensified the ideological and economic war.
The UK poison plot was concocted to heighten economic tensions and prepare the western public for heightened military confrontations.
Russia is not a threat to the West: it is recovering its sovereignty in order to further a multi-polar world. President Putin is not an “aggressor” but he refuses to allow Russia to return to vassalage.
President Putin is immensely popular in Russia and hated by the US precisely because he is the opposite of Yeltsin – he has created a flourishing economy; he resists sanctions and defends Russia’s borders and allies.

Hysteria and being butt-hurt are first signs of weakness but this ageless wisdom seems to pass over those who in today's America pretend to know it all, while having no clue.